TOMORROW AND TOMORROW

The latest Real Clear Politics averages show McCain up by 4.2 percent over Huckabee in tomorrow's South Carolina primary.  I think this is a must-win for either man.  McCain must show his game extends beyond New Hampshire to a state he lost in 2000.  Huckabee must show he can win where his evangelical base is strong. 

The Democrats won't vote in South Carolina until the 26th.  The RCP averages show Obama with a lead of almost 10 points.  South Carolina has a very large African-American population, and conventional wisdom, heard every hour on the hour in cable news shows, is that this is what accounts for Obama's lead.

This is a tragedy.  As I've noted in this space, every time the term "black vote" is used, it brings us closer to a white backlash.  It gives a kind of moral permission to vote on the basis of race.  For some whites, seeing blacks "vote black" makes them think they must react by "voting white."  I still feel, as I wrote last week, that Obama's inept handling of the "racial sensitivity" issue may be the biggest blunder of his campaign.  It energized some African-Americans, but politics is about numbers, and it may have energized many "vote white" types as well.  This problem may get worse if Obama wins only in states with large black populations.  He has admirably run his career as a man who transcends race.  Race may be catching up to him

The Democrats also vote in Nevada tomorrow, by caucus.  RCP has Clinton up by almost four, which may be a bit of a surprise because Obama has received some powerful union backing.  One key question is whether Hispanic voters will follow union leaders and pull the Obama lever.   There have been black-Hispanic frictions.

Stay tuned.  Super Tuesday, when 20 states vote, is two and a half weeks away.

Posted on January 18, 2008.